Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#89 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA pick
72%58%
BESTIA · 14 mapsedge BESTIA +14%Virtus.pro · 20 maps
MirageVirtus.pro pick
50%53%
BESTIA · 4 mapsnearly even -3%Virtus.pro · 15 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
67%57%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge BESTIA +10%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
CacheBESTIA ban
36%60%
BESTIA · 7 mapsedge Virtus.pro +24%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
50%67%
BESTIA · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +17%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
50%38%
BESTIA · 0 mapsedge BESTIA +12%Virtus.pro · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%55%
BESTIA · 0 mapsedge Virtus.pro +5%Virtus.pro · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
3. PickBESTIA take Dust2
4. PickVirtus.pro take Mirage
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
6. BanBESTIA remove Cache
DeciderOverpass (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
BESTIA 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on BESTIA — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
BESTIA 62%Virtus.pro 38%
The model gave 62% on BESTIA — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2