European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
36%62%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +26%BASEMENT BOYS · 9 maps
NukeBET-M pick
50%57%
BET-M · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
43%69%
BET-M · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +26%BASEMENT BOYS · 9 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
33%36%
BET-M · 5 mapsnearly even -3%BASEMENT BOYS · 7 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
56%67%
BET-M · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +11%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
AnubisBET-M ban
50%50%
BET-M · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
50%40%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge BET-M +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Overpass
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickBET-M take Nuke
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
6. BanBET-M remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (36% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
BET-M 36%BASEMENT BOYS 64%
The model gave 64% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BET-M.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
BET-M 46%BASEMENT BOYS 54%
The model gave 54% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
BET-M 25%BASEMENT BOYS 75%
The model gave 75% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 63%
Series resultBET-M 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3