WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBET-M pick
42%50%
BET-M · 8 mapsedge HTX +8%HTX · 0 maps
AncientBET-M ban
36%50%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge HTX +14%HTX · 0 maps
Dust2HTX ban
45%50%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge HTX +5%HTX · 0 maps
MirageHTX ban
55%50%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge BET-M +5%HTX · 0 maps
InfernoHTX pick
40%50%
BET-M · 6 mapsedge HTX +10%HTX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Ancient
2. BanHTX remove Mirage
3. PickBET-M take Nuke
4. PickHTX take Inferno
5. BanHTX remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
BET-M 52%HTX 48%
The model gave 52% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
BET-M 45%HTX 55%
The model gave 55% on HTX — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 58%
Series resultBET-M 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2