Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KAMUI#187 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBET-M ban
33%40%
BET-M · 14 mapsedge KAMUI +7%KAMUI · 1 map
MirageKAMUI pick
60%75%
BET-M · 11 mapsedge KAMUI +15%KAMUI · 4 maps
NukeKAMUI ban
53%50%
BET-M · 15 mapsnearly even +3%KAMUI · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
44%50%
BET-M · 12 mapsedge KAMUI +6%KAMUI · 2 maps
InfernoBET-M pick
63%60%
BET-M · 12 mapsnearly even +3%KAMUI · 1 map
AnubisKAMUI ban
55%40%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge BET-M +15%KAMUI · 1 map
CacheBET-M ban
50%60%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge KAMUI +10%KAMUI · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Cache
2. BanKAMUI remove Nuke
3. PickBET-M take Inferno
4. PickKAMUI take Mirage
5. BanKAMUI remove Anubis
6. BanBET-M remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
BET-M 56%KAMUI 44%
The model gave 56% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
BET-M 31%KAMUI 69%
The model gave 69% on KAMUI — the map was taken by KAMUI.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
BET-M 44%KAMUI 56%
The model gave 56% on KAMUI — the map was taken by KAMUI.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 75%
Series resultKAMUI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3