NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BET-M ban
41%44%
BET-M · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Leo · 21 map
NukeBET-M pick
53%86%
BET-M · 13 mapsedge Leo +33%Leo · 17 maps
AncientLeo pick
20%42%
BET-M · 11 mapsedge Leo +22%Leo · 15 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%36%
BET-M · 6 mapsedge BET-M +24%Leo · 10 maps
MirageLeo ban
54%40%
BET-M · 9 mapsedge BET-M +14%Leo · 6 maps
InfernoLeo ban
59%50%
BET-M · 13 mapsedge BET-M +9%Leo · 0 maps
CacheBET-M ban
50%40%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge BET-M +10%Leo · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Cache
2. BanLeo remove Inferno
3. PickBET-M take Nuke
4. PickLeo take Ancient
5. BanLeo remove Mirage
6. BanBET-M remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (60% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
BET-M 47%Leo 53%
The model gave 53% on Leo — the map was taken by BET-M.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
BET-M 66%Leo 34%
The model gave 66% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 60%
Series resultBET-M 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2