NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#62 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBET-M ban
33%56%
BET-M · 14 mapsedge Nemiga +23%Nemiga · 23 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
47%57%
BET-M · 15 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 19 maps
Miragepossible decider
53%75%
BET-M · 13 mapsedge Nemiga +22%Nemiga · 16 maps
NukeBET-M pick
55%65%
BET-M · 16 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 13 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
55%72%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 14 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
67%60%
BET-M · 14 mapsedge BET-M +7%Nemiga · 1 map
CacheBET-M ban
50%69%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +19%Nemiga · 12 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Cache
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickBET-M take Nuke
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Dust2
6. BanBET-M remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (53% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
BET-M 29%Nemiga 71%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
BET-M 43%Nemiga 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 72%
Series resultNemiga 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2