FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM#16 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Astralis#12 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
67%62%
BETBOOM · 5 mapsedge BETBOOM +5%Astralis · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%44%
BETBOOM · 6 mapsnearly even -4%Astralis · 5 maps
Dust2BETBOOM pick
50%22%
BETBOOM · 4 mapsedge BETBOOM +28%Astralis · 5 maps
MirageAstralis ban
63%43%
BETBOOM · 4 mapsedge BETBOOM +20%Astralis · 3 maps
CacheBETBOOM ban
50%63%
BETBOOM · 2 mapsedge Astralis +13%Astralis · 4 maps
InfernoBETBOOM ban
50%56%
BETBOOM · 0 mapsedge Astralis +6%Astralis · 5 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
33%50%
BETBOOM · 2 mapsedge Astralis +17%Astralis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBETBOOM remove Inferno
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickBETBOOM take Dust2
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Mirage
6. BanBETBOOM remove Cache
DeciderNuke (40% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
BETBOOM 53%Astralis 47%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM — the map was taken by BETBOOM.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
BETBOOM 36%Astralis 64%
The model gave 64% on Astralis — the map was taken by BETBOOM.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2