Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#65 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OG#203 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBetclic pick
38%43%
Betclic · 12 mapsedge OG +5%OG · 3 maps
AnubisOG ban
71%50%
Betclic · 10 mapsedge Betclic +21%OG · 0 maps
OverpassOG pick
33%56%
Betclic · 5 mapsedge OG +23%OG · 5 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
33%50%
Betclic · 5 mapsedge OG +17%OG · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%60%
Betclic · 6 mapsedge OG +20%OG · 1 map
InfernoBetclic ban
29%67%
Betclic · 3 mapsedge OG +38%OG · 2 maps
AncientOG ban
38%50%
Betclic · 4 mapsedge OG +12%OG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Inferno
2. BanOG remove Anubis
3. PickBetclic take Nuke
4. PickOG take Overpass
5. BanOG remove Ancient
6. BanBetclic remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:16
Betclic 26%OG 74%
The model gave 74% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Betclic 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the map was taken by Betclic.
Mirageprediction missed19:16
Betclic 31%OG 69%
The model gave 69% on OG — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 58%
Series resultBetclic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3