?
arrow_backBack to match
Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#65 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
39%47%
Betclic · 14 mapsedge The Last Resort +8%The Last Resort · 15 maps
AncientThe Last Resort pick
44%57%
Betclic · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +13%The Last Resort · 10 maps
OverpassBetclic ban
30%64%
Betclic · 6 mapsedge The Last Resort +34%The Last Resort · 7 maps
AnubisBetclic pick
71%50%
Betclic · 10 mapsedge Betclic +21%The Last Resort · 2 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
36%56%
Betclic · 7 mapsedge The Last Resort +20%The Last Resort · 5 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
45%25%
Betclic · 7 mapsedge Betclic +20%The Last Resort · 4 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
29%60%
Betclic · 3 mapsedge The Last Resort +31%The Last Resort · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Inferno
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
3. PickBetclic take Anubis
4. PickThe Last Resort take Ancient
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
6. BanBetclic remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (39% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Betclic 47%The Last Resort 53%
The model gave 53% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Betclic 74%The Last Resort 26%
The model gave 74% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Betclic 38%The Last Resort 62%
The model gave 63% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetclic · 60%
Series resultBetclic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3