NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG Academy#215 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
57%63%
BIG Academy · 10 mapsedge ex-MANA +6%ex-MANA · 4 maps
Overpassex-MANA ban
69%50%
BIG Academy · 9 mapsedge BIG Academy +19%ex-MANA · 0 maps
AncientBIG Academy pick
70%50%
BIG Academy · 6 mapsedge BIG Academy +20%ex-MANA · 2 maps
InfernoBIG Academy ban
56%50%
BIG Academy · 5 mapsedge BIG Academy +6%ex-MANA · 0 maps
Anubisex-MANA ban
57%40%
BIG Academy · 3 mapsedge BIG Academy +17%ex-MANA · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
33%40%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsedge ex-MANA +7%ex-MANA · 1 map
MirageBIG Academy ban
50%60%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsedge ex-MANA +10%ex-MANA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
2. Banex-MANA remove Overpass
3. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
4. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
5. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
6. BanBIG Academy remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
BIG Academy 72%ex-MANA 28%
The model gave 72% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
BIG Academy 42%ex-MANA 58%
The model gave 58% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 57%
Series resultBIG Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2