European Pro League Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG Academy#147 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial Academy#224 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
57%60%
BIG Academy · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Imperial Academy · 1 map
Dust2BIG Academy ban
50%50%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Imperial Academy · 0 maps
MirageImperial Academy pick
60%60%
BIG Academy · 1 mapnearly even +0%Imperial Academy · 1 map
OverpassImperial Academy ban
60%40%
BIG Academy · 1 mapedge BIG Academy +20%Imperial Academy · 1 map
DefaultBIG Academy ban
50%60%
BIG Academy · 0 mapsedge Imperial Academy +10%Imperial Academy · 1 map
InfernoImperial Academy ban
60%50%
BIG Academy · 1 mapedge BIG Academy +10%Imperial Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG Academy remove Default
2. BanImperial Academy remove Inferno
3. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
4. PickImperial Academy take Mirage
5. BanImperial Academy remove Overpass
6. BanBIG Academy remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
BIG Academy 53%Imperial Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by Imperial Academy.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
BIG Academy 47%Imperial Academy 53%
The model gave 53% on Imperial Academy — the map was taken by Imperial Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 61%
Series resultImperial Academy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2