NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG Academy#215 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
77%50%
BIG Academy · 9 mapsedge BIG Academy +27%Vexar · 6 maps
Dust2Vexar pick
60%50%
BIG Academy · 11 mapsedge BIG Academy +10%Vexar · 2 maps
InfernoBIG Academy ban
56%50%
BIG Academy · 5 mapsedge BIG Academy +6%Vexar · 4 maps
OverpassVexar ban
69%50%
BIG Academy · 9 mapsedge BIG Academy +19%Vexar · 0 maps
DefaultBIG Academy ban
33%60%
BIG Academy · 2 mapsedge Vexar +27%Vexar · 6 maps
MirageVexar ban
57%33%
BIG Academy · 3 mapsedge BIG Academy +24%Vexar · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
57%50%
BIG Academy · 3 mapsedge BIG Academy +7%Vexar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
2. BanVexar remove Mirage
3. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
4. PickVexar take Dust2
5. BanVexar remove Overpass
6. BanBIG Academy remove Default
DeciderAnubis (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
BIG Academy 54%Vexar 46%
The model gave 54% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by Vexar.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
BIG Academy 79%Vexar 21%
The model gave 79% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 64%
Series resultVexar 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2