Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG#27 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientfnatic pick
57%72%
BIG · 10 mapsedge fnatic +15%fnatic · 14 maps
CacheBIG pick
62%74%
BIG · 9 mapsedge fnatic +12%fnatic · 15 maps
Miragefnatic ban
33%33%
BIG · 8 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%58%
BIG · 7 mapsnearly even -3%fnatic · 8 maps
Dust2BIG ban
57%54%
BIG · 3 mapsnearly even +3%fnatic · 9 maps
AnubisBIG ban
60%79%
BIG · 1 mapedge fnatic +19%fnatic · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
57%50%
BIG · 3 mapsedge BIG +7%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickBIG take Cache
4. Pickfnatic take Ancient
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanBIG remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (55% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
BIG 31%fnatic 69%
The model gave 69% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
BIG 49%fnatic 51%
The model gave 51% on fnatic — the map was taken by BIG.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
BIG 50%fnatic 50%
The model gave 50% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 62%
Series resultBIG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3