Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG#27 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBIG ban
42%69%
BIG · 8 mapsedge G2 +27%G2 · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%33%
BIG · 8 mapsedge BIG +34%G2 · 5 maps
InfernoBIG pick
62%71%
BIG · 9 mapsedge G2 +9%G2 · 3 maps
Dust2G2 ban
57%33%
BIG · 3 mapsedge BIG +24%G2 · 5 maps
OverpassG2 pick
43%67%
BIG · 3 mapsedge G2 +24%G2 · 5 maps
AnubisG2 ban
60%25%
BIG · 1 mapedge BIG +35%G2 · 4 maps
NukeBIG ban
50%50%
BIG · 4 mapsnearly even +0%G2 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Nuke
2. BanG2 remove Anubis
3. PickBIG take Inferno
4. PickG2 take Overpass
5. BanG2 remove Dust2
6. BanBIG remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (67% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
BIG 53%G2 47%
The model gave 53% on BIG — the map was taken by G2.
Ancientprediction correct16:13
BIG 78%G2 22%
The model gave 78% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Infernoprediction correct1:13
BIG 39%G2 61%
The model gave 61% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 70%
Series resultG2 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3