FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG#24 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
64%33%
BIG · 10 mapsedge BIG +31%G2 · 8 maps
InfernoG2 pick
55%69%
BIG · 7 mapsedge G2 +14%G2 · 9 maps
MirageBIG ban
36%67%
BIG · 7 mapsedge G2 +31%G2 · 8 maps
Dust2G2 ban
50%33%
BIG · 4 mapsedge BIG +17%G2 · 8 maps
CacheBIG pick
58%50%
BIG · 8 mapsedge BIG +8%G2 · 2 maps
AnubisG2 ban
60%40%
BIG · 1 mapedge BIG +20%G2 · 6 maps
OverpassBIG ban
40%63%
BIG · 1 mapedge G2 +23%G2 · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Mirage
2. BanG2 remove Anubis
3. PickBIG take Cache
4. PickG2 take Inferno
5. BanG2 remove Dust2
6. BanBIG remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (64% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
BIG 61%G2 39%
The model gave 61% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
BIG 20%G2 80%
The model gave 80% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
BIG 78%G2 22%
The model gave 78% on BIG — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 84%
Series resultG2 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3