IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
BIG#27 in the world · win 13:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 13:1
Gaimin Gladiators#46 in the world · loss 1:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGaimin Gladiators ban
57%33%
BIG · 3 mapsedge BIG +24%Gaimin Gladiators · 2 maps
OverpassBIG ban
40%33%
BIG · 1 mapedge BIG +7%Gaimin Gladiators · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
BIG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Gaimin Gladiators · 0 maps
AnubisGaimin Gladiators ban
40%50%
BIG · 1 mapedge Gaimin Gladiators +10%Gaimin Gladiators · 0 maps
Dust2BIG ban
50%40%
BIG · 0 mapsedge BIG +10%Gaimin Gladiators · 1 map
NukeBIG ban
40%50%
BIG · 1 mapedge Gaimin Gladiators +10%Gaimin Gladiators · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Nuke
2. BanGaimin Gladiators remove Anubis
3. BanBIG remove Dust2
4. BanGaimin Gladiators remove Mirage
5. BanBIG remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
BIG 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 77%
Series resultBIG 13:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1