Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
67%69%
Black Phoenix · 14 mapsnearly even -2%Bebop · 12 maps
MirageBebop pick
50%37%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +13%Bebop · 15 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
40%46%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge Bebop +6%Bebop · 9 maps
InfernoBebop ban
60%44%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge Black Phoenix +16%Bebop · 5 maps
CacheBebop ban
60%50%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge Black Phoenix +10%Bebop · 4 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
22%29%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsedge Bebop +7%Bebop · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%38%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsedge Black Phoenix +5%Bebop · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanBebop remove Inferno
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickBebop take Mirage
5. BanBebop remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (43% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Black Phoenix 41%Bebop 59%
The model gave 59% on Bebop — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Black Phoenix 51%Bebop 49%
The model gave 51% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 56%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2