CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
50%70%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge Butterfly +20%Butterfly · 6 maps
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
64%67%
Black Phoenix · 7 mapsnearly even -3%Butterfly · 2 maps
NukeButterfly pick
50%63%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Butterfly · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%50%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsedge Butterfly +7%Butterfly · 2 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
57%33%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsedge Black Phoenix +24%Butterfly · 2 maps
CacheButterfly ban
57%60%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Butterfly · 1 map
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
50%71%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +21%Butterfly · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. BanButterfly remove Inferno
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickButterfly take Nuke
5. BanButterfly remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Black Phoenix 50%Butterfly 50%
The model gave 50% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Black Phoenix 35%Butterfly 65%
The model gave 65% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
Black Phoenix 73%Butterfly 27%
The model gave 73% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 53%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3