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NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Drama#135 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
57%38%
Black Phoenix · 42 mapsedge Black Phoenix +19%Drama · 4 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
44%60%
Black Phoenix · 23 mapsedge Drama +16%Drama · 6 maps
NukeDrama pick
52%67%
Black Phoenix · 19 mapsedge Drama +15%Drama · 5 maps
InfernoDrama ban
63%33%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge Black Phoenix +30%Drama · 5 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
24%33%
Black Phoenix · 17 mapsedge Drama +9%Drama · 2 maps
CacheDrama ban
53%60%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge Drama +7%Drama · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
56%57%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Drama · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanDrama remove Cache
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickDrama take Nuke
5. BanDrama remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Black Phoenix 33%Drama 67%
The model gave 67% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Black Phoenix 71%Drama 29%
The model gave 71% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Black Phoenix 77%Drama 23%
The model gave 77% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 63%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3