European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
57%60%
Black Phoenix · 43 mapsnearly even -3%ex-RUSTEC · 36 maps
Nukeex-RUSTEC pick
50%50%
Black Phoenix · 20 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 28 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
24%67%
Black Phoenix · 17 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +43%ex-RUSTEC · 23 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
44%45%
Black Phoenix · 23 mapsnearly even -1%ex-RUSTEC · 16 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
65%47%
Black Phoenix · 16 mapsedge Black Phoenix +18%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
53%47%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%56%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Nuke
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (56% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
Black Phoenix 47%ex-RUSTEC 53%
The model gave 53% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Black Phoenix 70%ex-RUSTEC 30%
The model gave 70% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Dust2prediction missed19:16
Black Phoenix 47%ex-RUSTEC 53%
The model gave 53% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 55%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3