CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
61%56%
Black Phoenix · 53 mapsedge Black Phoenix +5%ex-RUSTEC · 41 map
Nukeex-RUSTEC pick
48%53%
Black Phoenix · 23 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +5%ex-RUSTEC · 30 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
31%64%
Black Phoenix · 22 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +33%ex-RUSTEC · 24 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
47%50%
Black Phoenix · 26 mapsnearly even -3%ex-RUSTEC · 18 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
65%47%
Black Phoenix · 19 mapsedge Black Phoenix +18%ex-RUSTEC · 15 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
46%47%
Black Phoenix · 20 mapsnearly even -1%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%56%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +6%ex-RUSTEC · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Nuke
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct19:15
Black Phoenix 59%ex-RUSTEC 41%
The model gave 59% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Black Phoenix 42%ex-RUSTEC 58%
The model gave 58% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 59%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2