Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity ban
63%55%
Black Phoenix · 20 mapsedge Black Phoenix +8%ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity pick
50%58%
Black Phoenix · 12 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
44%50%
Black Phoenix · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
58%56%
Black Phoenix · 8 mapsnearly even +2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
18%33%
Black Phoenix · 7 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +15%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix pick
67%75%
Black Phoenix · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 maps
DefaultBlack Phoenix ban
50%63%
Black Phoenix · 4 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +13%ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Dust2
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Cache
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Nuke
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Default
DeciderInferno (58% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct3:13
Black Phoenix 37%ex-Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Black Phoenix 61%ex-Zero Tenacity 39%
The model gave 61% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 54%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2