CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#55 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Illyrians#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
66%48%
Black Phoenix · 69 mapsedge Black Phoenix +18%Illyrians · 17 maps
MirageIllyrians pick
54%54%
Black Phoenix · 33 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 22 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix ban
48%73%
Black Phoenix · 25 mapsedge Illyrians +25%Illyrians · 11 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
42%70%
Black Phoenix · 29 mapsedge Illyrians +28%Illyrians · 6 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
52%40%
Black Phoenix · 29 mapsedge Black Phoenix +12%Illyrians · 1 map
InfernoIllyrians ban
64%50%
Black Phoenix · 21 mapedge Black Phoenix +14%Illyrians · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
53%43%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +10%Illyrians · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Cache
DeciderDefault (53% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
Black Phoenix 23%Illyrians 77%
The model gave 77% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Black Phoenix 70%Illyrians 30%
The model gave 70% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 59%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2