CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
61%54%
Black Phoenix · 53 mapsedge Black Phoenix +7%megoshort · 9 maps
Miragemegoshort pick
45%47%
Black Phoenix · 25 mapsnearly even -2%megoshort · 13 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
31%57%
Black Phoenix · 22 mapsedge megoshort +26%megoshort · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
48%50%
Black Phoenix · 19 mapsnearly even -2%megoshort · 6 maps
Infernomegoshort ban
64%44%
Black Phoenix · 18 mapsedge Black Phoenix +20%megoshort · 5 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
48%50%
Black Phoenix · 23 mapsnearly even -2%megoshort · 0 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
33%60%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge megoshort +27%megoshort · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
DeciderCache (48% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Black Phoenix 71%megoshort 29%
The model gave 71% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Cacheprediction correct4:13
Black Phoenix 45%megoshort 55%
The model gave 55% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Black Phoenix 48%megoshort 52%
The model gave 52% on megoshort — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 66%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3