Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
69%50%
Black Phoenix · 12 mapsedge Black Phoenix +19%Raccoons · 0 maps
MirageRaccoons pick
58%71%
Black Phoenix · 8 mapsedge Raccoons +13%Raccoons · 3 maps
CacheRaccoons ban
60%50%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge Black Phoenix +10%Raccoons · 0 maps
InfernoRaccoons ban
67%60%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsedge Black Phoenix +7%Raccoons · 1 map
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
33%60%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsedge Raccoons +27%Raccoons · 1 map
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
25%50%
Black Phoenix · 4 mapsedge Raccoons +25%Raccoons · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%50%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsedge Raccoons +7%Raccoons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanRaccoons remove Cache
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickRaccoons take Mirage
5. BanRaccoons remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Black Phoenix 33%Raccoons 67%
The model gave 67% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
Black Phoenix 71%Raccoons 29%
The model gave 71% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 71%
Series resultRaccoons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2