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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
bLight blue#377 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientbLight blue ban
50%74%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge NEXVOID +24%NEXVOID · 15 maps
InfernoNEXVOID pick
50%61%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge NEXVOID +11%NEXVOID · 14 maps
Dust2bLight blue pick
50%36%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge bLight blue +14%NEXVOID · 7 maps
NukeNEXVOID ban
50%40%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge bLight blue +10%NEXVOID · 6 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
50%25%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge bLight blue +25%NEXVOID · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
bLight blue · 0 mapsnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 2 maps
DefaultbLight blue ban
50%60%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge NEXVOID +10%NEXVOID · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanbLight blue remove Ancient
2. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
3. PickbLight blue take Dust2
4. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
5. BanNEXVOID remove Nuke
6. BanbLight blue remove Default
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
bLight blue 66%NEXVOID 34%
The model gave 66% on bLight blue — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction correct3:13
bLight blue 36%NEXVOID 64%
The model gave 64% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 73%
Series resultNEXVOID 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2