ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
33%64%
bLight blue · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +31%Rare Atom · 21 map
AncientRare Atom ban
50%53%
bLight blue · 2 mapsnearly even -3%Rare Atom · 11 maps
InfernobLight blue ban
40%60%
bLight blue · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +20%Rare Atom · 11 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%73%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +23%Rare Atom · 11 maps
MiragebLight blue pick
50%55%
bLight blue · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +5%Rare Atom · 7 maps
AnubisbLight blue ban
50%63%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +13%Rare Atom · 4 maps
DefaultRare Atom ban
50%33%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge bLight blue +17%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanbLight blue remove Anubis
2. BanRare Atom remove Default
3. PickbLight blue take Mirage
4. PickRare Atom take Dust2
5. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
6. BanbLight blue remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
bLight blue 24%Rare Atom 76%
The model gave 76% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
bLight blue 48%Rare Atom 52%
The model gave 52% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 76%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2