ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fire Flux#128 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BOJONG pick
50%56%
BOJONG · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%Fire Flux · 12 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
33%33%
BOJONG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Fire Flux · 8 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
50%62%
BOJONG · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +12%Fire Flux · 9 maps
CacheBOJONG ban
40%50%
BOJONG · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +10%Fire Flux · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%58%
BOJONG · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +8%Fire Flux · 8 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
50%56%
BOJONG · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%Fire Flux · 5 maps
AncientBOJONG ban
50%33%
BOJONG · 0 mapsedge BOJONG +17%Fire Flux · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBOJONG remove Ancient
2. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
3. PickBOJONG take Dust2
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
6. BanBOJONG remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
BOJONG 69%Fire Flux 31%
The model gave 69% on BOJONG — the map was taken by BOJONG.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
BOJONG 36%Fire Flux 64%
The model gave 64% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Infernoprediction correct13:16
BOJONG 42%Fire Flux 58%
The model gave 58% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 63%
Series resultFire Flux 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3