ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBOJONG ban
33%50%
BOJONG · 2 mapsedge LFO 7 +17%LFO 7 · 2 maps
InfernoLFO 7 pick
40%33%
BOJONG · 1 mapedge BOJONG +7%LFO 7 · 2 maps
AncientBOJONG pick
60%50%
BOJONG · 1 mapedge BOJONG +10%LFO 7 · 0 maps
AnubisLFO 7 ban
40%50%
BOJONG · 1 mapedge LFO 7 +10%LFO 7 · 0 maps
CacheLFO 7 ban
40%50%
BOJONG · 1 mapedge LFO 7 +10%LFO 7 · 0 maps
Dust2BOJONG ban
50%60%
BOJONG · 0 mapsedge LFO 7 +10%LFO 7 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBOJONG remove Dust2
2. BanLFO 7 remove Anubis
3. PickBOJONG take Ancient
4. PickLFO 7 take Inferno
5. BanLFO 7 remove Cache
6. BanBOJONG remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
BOJONG 53%LFO 7 47%
The model gave 53% on BOJONG — the map was taken by LFO 7.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
BOJONG 57%LFO 7 43%
The model gave 57% on BOJONG — the map was taken by LFO 7.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 7 · 50%
Series resultLFO 7 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2