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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BORRACHEIROS#179 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
55%77%
BORRACHEIROS · 7 mapsedge Galorys +22%Galorys · 9 maps
Dust2BORRACHEIROS pick
63%36%
BORRACHEIROS · 4 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +27%Galorys · 7 maps
AnubisBORRACHEIROS ban
57%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 3 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +7%Galorys · 4 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
33%33%
BORRACHEIROS · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Galorys · 2 maps
MirageGalorys ban
44%60%
BORRACHEIROS · 5 mapsedge Galorys +16%Galorys · 1 map
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
33%71%
BORRACHEIROS · 2 mapsedge Galorys +38%Galorys · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 3 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +21%Galorys · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
2. BanGalorys remove Inferno
3. PickBORRACHEIROS take Dust2
4. PickGalorys take Ancient
5. BanGalorys remove Mirage
6. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
BORRACHEIROS 60%Galorys 40%
The model gave 60% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction missed19:15
BORRACHEIROS 24%Galorys 76%
The model gave 76% on Galorys — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Nukeprediction correct2:13
BORRACHEIROS 17%Galorys 83%
The model gave 83% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 72%
Series resultGalorys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3