Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BESTIA#65 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBounty Hunters pick
59%36%
Bounty Hunters · 18 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +23%BESTIA · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%62%
Bounty Hunters · 16 mapsedge BESTIA +12%BESTIA · 9 maps
Dust2BESTIA pick
42%65%
Bounty Hunters · 8 mapsedge BESTIA +23%BESTIA · 16 maps
NukeBESTIA ban
56%60%
Bounty Hunters · 14 mapsnearly even -4%BESTIA · 6 maps
AncientBounty Hunters ban
36%50%
Bounty Hunters · 10 mapsedge BESTIA +14%BESTIA · 8 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%58%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsedge BESTIA +8%BESTIA · 8 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
60%50%
Bounty Hunters · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%BESTIA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
3. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
4. PickBESTIA take Dust2
5. BanBESTIA remove Nuke
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed14:16
Bounty Hunters 74%BESTIA 26%
The model gave 74% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Mirageprediction correct16:19
Bounty Hunters 36%BESTIA 64%
The model gave 64% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA · 68%
Series resultBESTIA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2