ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBounty Hunters ban
36%71%
Bounty Hunters · 7 mapsedge Galorys +35%Galorys · 10 maps
NukeBounty Hunters pick
60%75%
Bounty Hunters · 11 mapsedge Galorys +15%Galorys · 4 maps
Dust2Galorys ban
50%36%
Bounty Hunters · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +14%Galorys · 7 maps
MirageGalorys ban
43%60%
Bounty Hunters · 10 mapsedge Galorys +17%Galorys · 1 map
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
57%56%
Bounty Hunters · 3 mapsnearly even +1%Galorys · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
55%40%
Bounty Hunters · 7 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +15%Galorys · 1 map
OverpassGalorys pick
40%57%
Bounty Hunters · 1 mapedge Galorys +17%Galorys · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Ancient
2. BanGalorys remove Mirage
3. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
4. PickGalorys take Overpass
5. BanGalorys remove Dust2
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
DeciderCache (55% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
Bounty Hunters 67%Galorys 33%
The model gave 67% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Bounty Hunters 17%Galorys 83%
The model gave 83% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 54%
Series resultGalorys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2