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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
43%50%
Bounty Hunters · 10 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
NukeBounty Hunters pick
57%50%
Bounty Hunters · 10 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +7%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
36%50%
Bounty Hunters · 7 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +14%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
50%50%
Bounty Hunters · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
Dust2Turma do Pagode pick
56%50%
Bounty Hunters · 5 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +6%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
57%50%
Bounty Hunters · 3 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +7%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%40%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
3. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Dust2
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (36% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Bounty Hunters 34%Turma do Pagode 66%
The model gave 66% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
Bounty Hunters 46%Turma do Pagode 54%
The model gave 54% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 55%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2