Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
50%53%
Bounty Hunters · 14 mapsnearly even -3%Yawara · 15 maps
Ancientpossible decider
31%47%
Bounty Hunters · 9 mapsedge Yawara +16%Yawara · 11 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
42%53%
Bounty Hunters · 8 mapsedge Yawara +11%Yawara · 11 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
53%29%
Bounty Hunters · 13 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +24%Yawara · 3 maps
NukeYawara ban
56%50%
Bounty Hunters · 12 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +6%Yawara · 0 maps
AnubisYawara ban
57%44%
Bounty Hunters · 3 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +13%Yawara · 5 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%57%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Anubis
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (31% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct16:13
Bounty Hunters 76%Yawara 24%
The model gave 76% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
Bounty Hunters 60%Yawara 40%
The model gave 60% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 76%
Series resultBounty Hunters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2