FERJEE In House Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara ban
52%45%
Bounty Hunters · 21 mapedge Bounty Hunters +7%Yawara · 18 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
56%20%
Bounty Hunters · 21 mapedge Bounty Hunters +36%Yawara · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
35%53%
Bounty Hunters · 13 mapsedge Yawara +18%Yawara · 13 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
43%50%
Bounty Hunters · 10 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 12 maps
AnubisYawara pick
55%62%
Bounty Hunters · 7 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 9 maps
NukeYawara ban
56%50%
Bounty Hunters · 14 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +6%Yawara · 0 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%57%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
4. PickYawara take Anubis
5. BanYawara remove Mirage
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (35% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
Bounty Hunters 40%Yawara 60%
The model gave 60% on Yawara — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Bounty Hunters 58%Yawara 42%
The model gave 58% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 80%
Series resultBounty Hunters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2