ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultBrahmas ban
50%60%
Brahmas · 0 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 1 map
MirageVillainous ban
60%50%
Brahmas · 1 mapedge Brahmas +10%Villainous · 0 maps
NukeBrahmas pick
60%50%
Brahmas · 1 mapedge Brahmas +10%Villainous · 0 maps
OverpassVillainous pick
40%50%
Brahmas · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBrahmas remove Default
2. BanVillainous remove Mirage
3. PickBrahmas take Nuke
4. PickVillainous take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Brahmas 63%Villainous 37%
The model gave 63% on Brahmas — the map was taken by Villainous.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Brahmas 47%Villainous 53%
The model gave 53% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 53%
Series resultVillainous 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2