NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
QUAZAR#94 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2QUAZAR ban
57%47%
BRUTE · 17 mapsedge BRUTE +10%QUAZAR · 11 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
46%60%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge QUAZAR +14%QUAZAR · 11 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
46%62%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge QUAZAR +16%QUAZAR · 9 maps
MirageQUAZAR pick
60%69%
BRUTE · 6 mapsedge QUAZAR +9%QUAZAR · 12 maps
NukeQUAZAR ban
58%54%
BRUTE · 8 mapsnearly even +4%QUAZAR · 9 maps
InfernoBRUTE pick
67%56%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +11%QUAZAR · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +10%QUAZAR · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
2. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
3. PickBRUTE take Inferno
4. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
5. BanQUAZAR remove Nuke
6. BanBRUTE remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:14
BRUTE 32%QUAZAR 68%
The model gave 68% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
BRUTE 43%QUAZAR 57%
The model gave 57% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 52%
Series resultBRUTE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2