ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
74%63%
Bushido Wildcats · 15 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +11%Leo · 20 maps
NukeLeo pick
31%58%
Bushido Wildcats · 9 mapsedge Leo +27%Leo · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%38%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +12%Leo · 12 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
40%56%
Bushido Wildcats · 1 mapedge Leo +16%Leo · 12 maps
MirageLeo ban
60%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +10%Leo · 4 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
50%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Leo +10%Leo · 1 map
OverpassLeo ban
63%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +13%Leo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
2. BanLeo remove Overpass
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickLeo take Nuke
5. BanLeo remove Mirage
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
Bushido Wildcats 22%Leo 78%
The model gave 78% on Leo — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Bushido Wildcats 65%Leo 35%
The model gave 65% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Leo.
Anubisprediction correct13:1
Bushido Wildcats 63%Leo 37%
The model gave 63% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 52%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3