NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Permitta ban
72%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 21 mapedge Bushido Wildcats +22%Permitta · 0 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
40%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 11 mapsnearly even +0%Permitta · 1 map
MirageBushido Wildcats pick
71%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 10 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +11%Permitta · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
55%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +15%Permitta · 1 map
CachePermitta pick
57%71%
Bushido Wildcats · 3 mapsedge Permitta +14%Permitta · 3 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
56%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 5 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +6%Permitta · 0 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
40%43%
Bushido Wildcats · 1 mapnearly even -3%Permitta · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Mirage
4. PickPermitta take Cache
5. BanPermitta remove Inferno
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (55% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Bushido Wildcats 47%Permitta 53%
The model gave 53% on Permitta — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Bushido Wildcats 65%Permitta 35%
The model gave 65% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 57%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2