Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#73 in the world · win 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
71%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 24 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +11%Raccoons · 1 map
MirageRaccoons pick
67%75%
Bushido Wildcats · 14 mapsedge Raccoons +8%Raccoons · 4 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
42%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 15 mapsedge Raccoons +18%Raccoons · 1 map
AnubisRaccoons ban
58%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 8 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +8%Raccoons · 0 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
56%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Raccoons · 1 map
CacheRaccoons ban
50%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Raccoons · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
63%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +13%Raccoons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
2. BanRaccoons remove Cache
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickRaccoons take Mirage
5. BanRaccoons remove Anubis
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Bushido Wildcats 65%Raccoons 35%
The model gave 65% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Bushido Wildcats 42%Raccoons 58%
The model gave 58% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Bushido Wildcats 40%Raccoons 60%
The model gave 60% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 73%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3