CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Noir Verse ban
65%50%
Butterfly · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +15%Noir Verse · 18 maps
AncientButterfly pick
59%50%
Butterfly · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +9%Noir Verse · 14 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
71%67%
Butterfly · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Noir Verse · 17 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
60%46%
Butterfly · 16 mapsedge Butterfly +14%Noir Verse · 9 maps
CacheButterfly ban
63%50%
Butterfly · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Noir Verse · 14 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
40%45%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +5%Noir Verse · 16 maps
Defaultpossible decider
63%36%
Butterfly · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +27%Noir Verse · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
3. PickButterfly take Ancient
4. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
5. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
6. BanButterfly remove Cache
DeciderDefault (63% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Butterfly 53%Noir Verse 47%
The model gave 53% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
Butterfly 66%Noir Verse 34%
The model gave 66% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Butterfly 75%Noir Verse 25%
The model gave 75% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 56%
Series resultNoir Verse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3