PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
70%46%
Butterfly · 16 mapsedge Butterfly +24%Nuclear TigeRES · 24 maps
AncientButterfly pick
61%63%
Butterfly · 14 mapsnearly even -2%Nuclear TigeRES · 23 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
21%74%
Butterfly · 15 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +53%Nuclear TigeRES · 15 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
59%47%
Butterfly · 18 mapsedge Butterfly +12%Nuclear TigeRES · 11 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
40%52%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +12%Nuclear TigeRES · 21 map
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
65%27%
Butterfly · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +38%Nuclear TigeRES · 7 maps
CacheButterfly ban
63%60%
Butterfly · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickButterfly take Ancient
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanButterfly remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (70% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Butterfly 8%Nuclear TigeRES 92%
The model gave 92% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Butterfly 65%Nuclear TigeRES 35%
The model gave 65% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 63%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2