PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
45%60%
Chicken Coop · 7 mapsedge antivalue +15%antivalue · 1 map
InfernoChicken Coop pick
45%60%
Chicken Coop · 7 mapsedge antivalue +15%antivalue · 1 map
Nukeantivalue ban
57%40%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%antivalue · 1 map
Ancientantivalue ban
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%antivalue · 0 maps
Defaultantivalue pick
43%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge antivalue +7%antivalue · 0 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
40%40%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapnearly even +0%antivalue · 1 map
AnubisChicken Coop ban
50%40%
Chicken Coop · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%antivalue · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. Banantivalue remove Nuke
3. PickChicken Coop take Inferno
4. Pickantivalue take Default
5. Banantivalue remove Ancient
6. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (45% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Chicken Coop 54%antivalue 46%
The model gave 54% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by antivalue.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Chicken Coop 69%antivalue 31%
The model gave 69% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Chicken Coop 36%antivalue 64%
The model gave 64% on antivalue — the map was taken by antivalue.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 57%
Series resultantivalue 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3