ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EMPIRE#176 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
58%40%
Chicken Coop · 8 mapsedge Chicken Coop +18%EMPIRE · 1 map
Dust2EMPIRE pick
50%60%
Chicken Coop · 6 mapsedge EMPIRE +10%EMPIRE · 1 map
NukeChicken Coop ban
50%60%
Chicken Coop · 4 mapsedge EMPIRE +10%EMPIRE · 1 map
OverpassChicken Coop pick
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%EMPIRE · 0 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
75%50%
Chicken Coop · 4 mapsedge Chicken Coop +25%EMPIRE · 0 maps
DefaultEMPIRE ban
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%EMPIRE · 0 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
40%50%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +10%EMPIRE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
3. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
4. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
5. BanEMPIRE remove Default
6. BanChicken Coop remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (58% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:0
Chicken Coop 37%EMPIRE 63%
The model gave 63% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Chicken Coop 70%EMPIRE 30%
The model gave 70% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 59%
Series resultChicken Coop 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2