ESEA Season 57 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoChicken Coop pick
67%33%
Chicken Coop · 8 mapsedge Chicken Coop +34%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
67%29%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Chicken Coop +38%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
64%60%
Chicken Coop · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Overtake Sector · 1 map
Dust2Chicken Coop ban
44%50%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +6%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
MirageOvertake Sector pick
60%44%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge Chicken Coop +16%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Chicken Coop · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
40%67%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +27%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickChicken Coop take Inferno
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
6. BanChicken Coop remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (64% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Chicken Coop 42%Overtake Sector 58%
The model gave 58% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
Chicken Coop 57%Overtake Sector 43%
The model gave 57% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Chicken Coop 83%Overtake Sector 17%
The model gave 83% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 77%
Series resultChicken Coop 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3