ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 10 mapsnearly even +0%100RA · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
45%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 7 mapsedge 100RA +5%100RA · 0 maps
Inferno100RA ban
55%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 7 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +5%100RA · 0 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
44%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 5 mapsedge 100RA +6%100RA · 0 maps
Mirage100RA ban
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsnearly even +0%100RA · 0 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
29%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 3 mapsedge 100RA +21%100RA · 0 maps
Cache100RA pick
40%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapedge 100RA +10%100RA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
2. Ban100RA remove Inferno
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
4. Pick100RA take Cache
5. Ban100RA remove Mirage
6. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
Chinggis Warriors 47%100RA 53%
The model gave 53% on 100RA — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
Chinggis Warriors 58%100RA 42%
The model gave 58% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 59%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2