Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Citronloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%65%
Citron · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +15%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
AncientCitron ban
40%67%
Citron · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +27%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
Dust2Citron pick
60%60%
Citron · 1 mapnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%53%
Citron · 0 mapsnearly even -3%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%36%
Citron · 1 mapnearly even +4%BASEMENT BOYS · 7 maps
AnubisCitron ban
50%60%
Citron · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%50%
Citron · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCitron remove Anubis
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickCitron take Dust2
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
6. BanCitron remove Ancient
DeciderCache (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct0:13
Citron 43%BASEMENT BOYS 57%
The model gave 57% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Citron 33%BASEMENT BOYS 67%
The model gave 67% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 71%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2