Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Coalesce#242 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SINQU REHTIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SINQU REHTI ban
57%50%
Coalesce · 3 mapsedge Coalesce +7%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
NukeCoalesce pick
50%50%
Coalesce · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU REHTI · 2 maps
InfernoCoalesce ban
50%40%
Coalesce · 0 mapsedge Coalesce +10%SINQU REHTI · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCoalesce remove Inferno
2. BanSINQU REHTI remove Dust2
3. PickCoalesce take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
Coalesce 47%SINQU REHTI 53%
The model gave 53% on SINQU REHTI — the map was taken by SINQU REHTI.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Coalesce 60%SINQU REHTI 40%
The model gave 60% on Coalesce — the map was taken by SINQU REHTI.
Model check result
Model favoriteCoalesce · 50%
Series resultSINQU REHTI 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2