NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Color pick
62%55%
Color · 17 mapsedge Color +7%Honvéd · 36 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
71%50%
Color · 10 mapsedge Color +21%Honvéd · 30 maps
AncientColor ban
62%53%
Color · 9 mapsedge Color +9%Honvéd · 15 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
55%35%
Color · 7 mapsedge Color +20%Honvéd · 13 maps
CacheColor ban
36%40%
Color · 7 mapsnearly even -4%Honvéd · 11 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
55%50%
Color · 7 mapsedge Color +5%Honvéd · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%71%
Color · 2 mapsnearly even -4%Honvéd · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Cache
2. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
3. PickColor take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. BanColor remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (67% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Color 44%Honvéd 56%
The model gave 56% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteColor · 68%
Series resultColor 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1