NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Color pick
63%69%
Color · 4 mapsedge SPARTA +6%SPARTA · 32 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
57%42%
Color · 3 mapsedge Color +15%SPARTA · 20 maps
MirageSPARTA pick
50%52%
Color · 2 mapsnearly even -2%SPARTA · 19 maps
NukeColor ban
50%55%
Color · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +5%SPARTA · 16 maps
InfernoColor ban
50%47%
Color · 2 mapsnearly even +3%SPARTA · 11 maps
Cachepossible decider
33%50%
Color · 2 mapsedge SPARTA +17%SPARTA · 10 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
67%43%
Color · 2 mapsedge Color +24%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Nuke
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickColor take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Mirage
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanColor remove Inferno
DeciderCache (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct19:22
Color 39%SPARTA 61%
The model gave 61% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Color 51%SPARTA 49%
The model gave 51% on Color — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 63%
Series resultSPARTA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2